Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 11.151562 13.039243 15.103035 17.520769 20.269076 23.289422 26.853197
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.661554 10.076494 12.987021 16.725398 21.368908 26.914076 34.000611
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 5.558440 8.115998 11.472824 16.136721 22.373570 30.341984 41.193710
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.379001 7.008464 10.724101 16.241729 24.086223 34.675189 49.848456
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.442552 6.001487 9.871454 15.973858 25.133577 38.105202 57.523936
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.993240 5.616742 9.820219 16.790003 27.729987 43.838281 68.815033
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.539006 5.117268 9.483783 17.076317 29.501574 48.466160 78.830441
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.136705 4.616960 9.048100 17.109037 30.827573 52.476071 88.175328
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.812451 4.188353 8.655171 17.134129 32.099423 56.451844 97.706488
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.706949 4.165623 8.981621 18.437821 35.613188 64.239404 113.756276
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.561375 4.028492 9.065853 19.297409 38.417189 71.044705 128.646905
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.412676 3.852857 9.043862 19.942617 40.878517 77.425246 143.218702
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.194907 3.481163 8.585299 19.722970 41.808820 81.376921 154.208189
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.967716 3.032068 7.889970 18.939938 41.606983 83.345721 161.982705
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.791957 2.667386 7.314825 18.320403 41.641939 85.720489 170.612135
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.689677 2.475435 7.104195 18.451741 43.172551 90.936779 184.641286
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.580939 2.233544 6.728121 18.157612 43.789263 94.461415 195.787289
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.543292 2.199943 6.870131 19.071943 47.023267 103.211333 217.132683
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.484731 2.081838 6.769637 19.392657 48.997088 109.611621 234.385417
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.423236 1.935033 6.564809 19.429520 50.343007 114.843237 249.689586
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.369823 1.800030 6.367888 19.457671 51.664511 120.100361 265.324935
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.364595 1.846926 6.708839 20.913434 56.382656 132.609321 295.866250
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.344638 1.829989 6.855669 21.872482 60.014663 143.061658 322.819825